The Boston Red Sox (28-25) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (24-29) to Fenway Park Tuesday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds at Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023; tied 2-2 last season
The Reds have performed well as of late, winning 5 of their last 7 games. Cincinnati swept the Chicago Cubs on the road over the weekend, taking them down in a 3-game series by a combined 25-10 score, which included a 9-0 shutout in Friday’s opener.
The Red Sox are the complete opposite, losing 5 of their last 7 — though they did take 2 of 3 at the Arizona Diamondbacks despite dropping the series finale Sunday 4-2 — and they’re 5-5 in their last 10 overall. Prior to the trip to the desert, Boston was swept in 3 by the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim. Boston will be happy to return to Fenway where it is 15-11 this season.
Reds at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Ben Lively vs. RHP Brayan Bello
Lively (2-2, 2.65 ERA) makes his 3rd start and 5th appearance of 2023. He has a 0.88 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 17 innings.
- Career vs. Red Sox: 1 start — as Phillies rookie in 3rd career appearance — no-decision, 7 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K in 4-3 Philly loss at Fenway in June 2017
- Career-bests 2.65 ERA and 9.5 K/9 this season, his 4th in MLB
- Just 1 MLB appearance (for Kansas City Royals) in 2019 before pitching in Korea through 2021 and then Triple-A last year and this season before call-up earlier this month
- Worked at least 5 2/3 innings in each of last 2 starts, going 1-1 with 3.09 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 4 ER) and 16 K’s
Bello (3-2, 4.08 ERA) makes his 8th start. The 2nd-year veteran has a 1.44 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 35 1/3 innings.
- Red Sox are 5-2 in Bello’s 7 starts
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 4-0 setback at Angels May 23
- Hasn’t given up more than 2 earned runs in each of his last 5 games — 2.57 ERA (28 IP, 8 ER) in that span
Reds at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 11:32 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Red Sox -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-120) | Red Sox -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!
Reds at Red Sox picks and predictions
Red Sox 6, Reds 5
The Reds (+150) are hot and just swept the Cubs. Regardless, the odds are justified as they are just 10-15 at home.
Marry that with Boston’s 15-11 home record and this should ultimately be a PASS. Boston (-185) isn’t worth the juice here, especially in its current form.
LEAN REDS +1.5 (-120).
Cincinnati is 15-10 ATS on the road this season, according to TeamRankings.com. Meanwhile, Boston is 13-13 ATS at home.
The Reds are also 25-16 ATS as underdogs, while the Red Sox are 8-13 ATS as favorites.
The trends point to Cincinnati, which has covered 5 straight games. CINCINNATI +1.5 (-120) is worth a small wager.
TAKE OVER 10 (-110).
If there is something both teams have done consistently this season, it is cash Over tickets. According to Covers.com, Cincinnati is 30-23 O/U, including 6-1 O/U in its last 7 games. So, the Reds bats have been hot as of late.
The Red Sox are 32-20-1 O/U, but just 2-2 O/U in last 4. They are also 18-7-1 O/U at home (per TeamRankings), the 2nd-best Over-hitting rate at home in the MLB — behind the Texas Rangers’ 16-6-2 O/U home mark.
Gannett may earn revenue from sports betting operators for audience referrals to betting services. Sports betting operators have no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. Terms apply, see operator site for Terms and Conditions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Call the National Council on Problem Gambling 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, OH), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). Must be 21 or older to gamble. Sports betting and gambling are not legal in all locations. Be sure to comply with laws applicable where you reside.