What’s next for Franklin and the Atlantic as the peak of hurricane season nears?


Following life-threatening impacts on the Dominican Republic into Thursday, Franklin will get its second wind over the Atlantic later this week, and meteorologists will be watching for potential development of additional systems farther to the east and perhaps close to the United States in the coming days.

The historical average of tropical systems in the Atlantic trends upward at an exponential rate into the middle of September. This means that the chances of having a named system spinning somewhere in the basin increase, along with the potential for having multiple named systems spinning simultaneously. Goings on in the Atlantic have demonstrated that over the past week with three named systems in action at the same time on two separate occasions.

Peak Timing / Frequency of Hurricane Season (2022)

Peak Timing / Frequency of Hurricane Season

Some of these systems pose no immediate threat to land. However, some that wander westward or form close to populated areas are of the greatest concern for lives and property.

Following Franklin’s midweek encounter with Hispaniola, where a tremendous amount of rain was unleashed, the system was moving away from the Big Island and into open, warm waters of the Atlantic.

Mountains rising as high as 10,000 feet in the Dominican Republic have only briefly disrupted the circulation and organization of Franklin. The system has experienced a slight increase in sustained winds to 60 mph as of Thursday midday. However, strong and shifting breezes, called wind shear, north of the Caribbean will likely work to keep the system’s intensity at bay for a time.

AccuWeather forecasters expect Franklin to strengthen through the weekend while over the open Atlantic. During this time, Franklin’s path will change.

The storm is expected to stall and eventually begin moving toward the northwest, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.

“Franklin is likely to become a hurricane for the first time a few hundred miles to the north of the northern islands of the Caribbean,” Douty said.

“There may even be a period beginning this weekend when wind shear lessens, and the intensity could ramp up significantly,” Douty said.

Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical system’s sustained winds increase by 35 mph or more in 24 hours or less. AccuWeather’s forecasting team is expecting Franklin to reach the intensity of a Category 2 hurricane. Such a tropical cyclone has maximum sustained winds of 96-110 mph on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The next level is a major hurricane, or Category 3, with sustained winds of 111-129 mph.

“Interests in Bermuda should not let their guard down even though the center of the eye of Franklin is currently projected to be well west of the islands,” Douty said.

The distance from Bermuda and impacts on the islands will depend on where Franklin stalls and when it begins to turn to the northwest and north over the Atlantic, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.

“Franklin’s exact path will depend on the position and strength of non-tropical weather systems such as high pressure over the central Atlantic and the approach of a cool front from North America,” Pastelok explained. “Details on the magnitude of impacts on Bermuda for early next week, if anything significant, may not be revealed until this weekend.”

Franklin’s track may be shifty into the weekend.

“Any eastward jog that Franklin takes over the weekend could bring heavy rain and strong wind to Bermuda,” AccuWeather Meteorologist La Troy Thornton said. “It is not yet out of the question that the center of Franklin passes within a hundred miles of the islands.” Such a track could bring powerful winds and heavy rain to the islands.

At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists believe that Franklin and its potentially damaging winds will stay to the east of much of the United States next week.

Impacts on the U.S. due to Franklin are likely to be limited to building seas offshore, turbulent surf and an uptick in the number and strength of rip currents, especially from the Carolinas to Massachusetts, during this weekend through the first part of next week, Douty said.

However, since Cape Cod, Massachusetts, extends eastward into the Atlantic, wave action and perhaps winds from Franklin could be more of a problem than in New Jersey or South Carolina, should more of a westward jog occur. Similarly, the zone from Nova Scotia to the island of Newfoundland, Canada, extends even farther to the east into the Atlantic and stands a better chance of more significant impacts than New Hampshire.

“A dip in the jet stream may try to pull Franklin in close to eastern New England and/or Atlantic Canada from Tuesday to Wednesday,” Pastelok explained. Should the jet stream hang back more to the west, however, Franklin would most likely stay well offshore.

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While an outlying, worst-case scenario would bring strong winds and heavy rain into eastern New England from Franklin, a more likely outcome will be from lesser showers and perhaps thunderstorms from a non-tropical system advancing into the Northeast states next week, Pastelok added.

AccuWeather meteorologists currently believe that westerly steering winds will protect the Northeast states from any close encounter with Franklin.

For the aforementioned reasons, forecasters recommend that people from Bermuda to eastern New England and Atlantic Canada, as well as offshore cruise, shipping and deep-sea interests, monitor the track and strength of Franklin.

AccuWeather meteorologists are continuing to monitor disturbances, called tropical waves, that have already moved off the coast of Africa or will do so in the coming days.

Given the warm waters in the Atlantic this season, there is the potential for multiple tropical systems to be spinning throughout the basin simultaneously, and there is even the potential for formerly-named systems to come back to life, Pastelok said. One such storm that could do just that is Emily.

Emily was a short-lived tropical storm from Sunday to Monday over the middle of the Atlantic and had since diminished to a tropical rainstorm. There is some indication that Emily could regenerate, possibly taking on a new name, depending on the discretion of the National Hurricane Center.

“Based on the abnormally warm water, there is the potential for more deceased tropical systems to regenerate during the months of September and October,” Pastelok said.

Toward the end of the month, the proximity of a cool front along the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts could be a source of trouble for tropical development — perhaps more than once.

“There is room for a disturbance to move northward from the western Caribbean and into the eastern Gulf during the end of August to the start of September,” Pastelok warned.

Extremely warm water (well into the 80s to near 90 F) and low wind shear could foster the organization and strengthening of such a system. A water temperature of 80 degrees is the approximate minimum threshold for tropical development.

As such, areas from the eastern Gulf to the southern Atlantic coast, including Florida, might have to deal with some tropical disturbance or perhaps a more robust tropical system close to the extended Labor Day weekend.

As an added concern, a front will dip down into the region by early September. Disturbances along this front could also evolve into a tropical system or two.

On a positive note, AccuWeather’s long-range and tropical teams believe that tropical activity should avoid the western Gulf of Mexico zone through the Labor Day holiday.

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