Celtics' first-round power rankings: Which team could give Boston a scare?

With more than two weeks left in the regular season, the Boston Celtics have already wrapped up the top seed in the Eastern Conference. They should soon clinch the NBA’s best record, which would give them home-court advantage through to the NBA Finals, if they advance that far.

The Celtics’ first-round opponent will not be determined until the Play-In Tournament, but the possibilities are becoming clearer. Before Wednesday night’s games, Basketball-Reference.com’s playoff probabilities report listed the Pacers, Heat, 76ers, Bulls and Hawks as the only teams with greater than a 1.5-percent chance of finishing eighth in the Eastern Conference after the Play-In Tournament. The Celtics will likely run into one of those teams in the first round.

Even with a lot of regular season basketball left to play, it’s OK to think ahead to what’s next. With that in mind, here’s an early power ranking of the teams the Celtics should want to see in the first round. For this exercise, I only ranked Boston’s five most likely opponents. The fifth-ranked team is who they should least want to see. The top-ranked team is who they should be most urgent to meet.

5. Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid’s status remains murky, but he has said he plans to return in time for the playoffs. If he does, the 76ers, who have looked broken without him, will take on a whole new shape. They were ranked third in net rating (6.5) before his torn right meniscus, but have gone 10-16 since.

The struggles without Embiid have highlighted the limited number of shot creators around him, but his presence opens the court for all his teammates. The 76ers added Buddy Hield at the trade deadline. They have a worthy bench when healthy and a second star in Tyrese Maxey. And Embiid, before his injury, looked more dominant than ever. It’s not clear whether he’ll be able to deliver a similar impact after missing so much time, but even 75 or 80 percent of Embiid would make Philadelphia an unusual first-round opponent for a top seed.

The Celtics are one of the NBA’s most complete teams, but their starting lineup has vulnerabilities against the biggest and most physical bruisers. Jrue Holiday defended Embiid during one game earlier this season, but such a tactic would likely get exposed throughout a full series. Al Horford has long been their preferred Embiid defender, but he comes off the bench now. How would the Celtics need to adapt? Even if they did topple Embiid, how beat up would they be after a series against him?

4. Indiana Pacers

Tyrese Haliburton has shot 27.5 percent on 3-point attempts since the All-Star break, but the Pacers still have the third-ranked offense during that span. They can score. Their unique, breakneck style poses challenges on every possession. Pascal Siakam seems to be hitting his stride; his versatility has changed them.

Indiana’s defense is still shaky at best. The Celtics offense would likely feel good during a series against the Pacers. But Haliburton’s good enough to take a game over. Indiana can pour in points relentlessly enough to win a shootout on any given night. The Pacers own a strong plus-5.6 net rating since the All-Star break and have racked up some impressive wins lately. They would be no first-round pushover.

3. Atlanta Hawks

With or without Trae Young, nothing about the Hawks screams playoff threat. They own the 27th-ranked defense. Their opponents have outscored them throughout the regular season. Entering their Wednesday night game against Portland at 32-39, they would be four games out of the Play-In Tournament picture if they were in the Western Conference.  In the East, they’re all but promised one of the final two Play-In spots.

The Celtics needed six games to beat the Hawks in the first round last season, but that might have been more indicative of Boston’s problems than Atlanta’s competitiveness. The Hawks haven’t looked like a high-caliber team this season except after that one time they fell behind the Celtics by 30 points. Young, Dejounte Murray and Bogdan Bogdanovic could get hot and win a game or two, but a series with Atlanta shouldn’t give Boston too many issues.

2. Chicago Bulls

Joe Mazzulla loves the math of basketball. The Bulls don’t play like they do. Only the Suns take long midrange jumpers with more frequency. Chicago ranks 25th in 3-point attempt rate; the Celtics attempt 10 more 3-pointers per game. The Bulls don’t like to lean into the volatile style that can make upsets more possible.

Against Boston, it would take a major upset for Chicago to advance. The Bulls rank 20th in offense and 20th in defense. As much as Alex Caruso’s defense deserves respect, this Chicago team doesn’t have much of an identity. DeMar DeRozan had a magical debut season for the Bulls but hasn’t quite sparkled the same way this season. Among the Celtics’ potential first-round foes, the Bulls would be the easiest to dispatch.

So why didn’t I rank them first?

1. Miami Heat

As the Celtics know well, the Heat are the most proven team on this list. At least in this group, they are the scariest potential first-round opponent. No matter what Miami’s record states, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Erik Spoelstra will show up to the fight like William Wallace.

So why did I put them at the top of this list? Because the Celtics, on pace for 65 wins and one of the best net ratings ever, should have the mentality that nobody can touch them. They should be itching to prove how much they’ve grown from last season, when they came back from a 3-0 deficit to Miami only to drop an ugly Game 7 in Boston. Jaylen Brown recently brought up how that series motivated him to come back as a different player. So why not prove it in Round 1?

Some people will think I’m crazy for this take. Those people might even be right. Miami would not provide the easiest path to the second round. Spoelstra would call all the right shots, as he usually does. Butler would inevitably craft at least two all-time playoff performances like he seems to do in every series. Boston would need to earn four wins against the Heat. But If the Celtics aren’t ready to outlast Miami, they’re not ready to win a title. So they might as well stare down the boogeyman right away.

(Top photo of Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton: Andy Lyons/Getty Images)